![]() Metropolitan status (2013 NCHS Urban–Rural Classification Scheme for Counties)įirst, the samples were adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.Vote method in the 2020 elections (NYT classifications based on L2 data). ![]() Turnout history (NYT classifications based on L2 data).National region (NYT classifications by state).White/non-white race by college or non-college educational attainment (L2 model of race weighted to match NYT-based targets for self-reported education).Education (four categories of self-reported education, weighted to match NYT-based targets derived from Times/Siena polls, census data and the L2 voter file).Age (Self-reported age, or voter file age if the respondent refuses) by gender (L2).Party (party registration if available, else classification based on a model of vote choice in prior Times/Siena polls) by whether the respondent’s race is modeled as white or nonwhite (L2 model).Second, the sample was weighted to match voter file-based parameters for the characteristics of registered voters. The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.įirst, the sample was adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum. Overall, 9 percent of interviews among self-reported Hispanics were conducted in Spanish, including 14 percent of weighted interviews. Monolingual Spanish-speaking respondents who were initially contacted by English-speaking interviewers were recontacted by Spanish-speaking interviewers. Bilingual interviewers began the interview in English and were instructed to follow the lead of the respondent in determining whether to conduct the survey in English or Spanish. The instrument was translated into Spanish by ReconMR. Overall, 95 percent of respondents were reached on a cellular telephone. Interviewers asked for the person named on the voter file and ended the interview if the intended respondent was not available. The sample was stratified by party, race and region and fielded by the Siena College Research Institute, with additional field work by ReconMR, the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida and the Institute of Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College. The state’s share of records was equal to the reciprocal of the mean response rate of the state’s records, divided by the national sum of the weights. The number of records selected by state was based on a model of unit nonresponse in prior Times/Siena national surveys as a function of state (as a random effect), telephone number quality, age, race, turnout and metropolitan status. Second, state records were selected for the national sample. For respondents with multiple telephone numbers on the L2 file, the number with the highest modeled response rate was selected. The initial selection weight was equal to the reciprocal of a stratum’s mean telephone coverage and modeled response rate. The mean expected response rate was based on a model of unit nonresponse in prior Times/Siena surveys. The proportion of registrants with a telephone number and the mean expected response rate were calculated for each stratum. To adjust for noncoverage bias, the L2 voter file was stratified by statehouse district, party, race, gender, marital status, household size, turnout history, age and home ownership. The sample was selected by The New York Times in multiple steps to account for differential telephone coverage, nonresponse and significant variation in the productivity of telephone numbers by state.įirst, records were selected by state. The survey is a response rate-adjusted stratified sample of registered voters on the L2 voter file. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3.5 percentage points for registered voters and +/- 3.7 percentage points for the likely electorate. The New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,016 registered voters nationwide was conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones from Dec. Other (includes no preference and the internet) Liberal news sites (Such as Mother Jones and Occupy Democrats) Aggregation sites (such as Bing, Google, Yahoo News or Apple News) International news sources (such as the BBC, Al Jazeera and The Guardian) Local print or online news organizations National print or online news organizations, like The New York Times or The Wall Street Journal Local broadcast news (includes non-talk, non-public local radio) National television networks, like CBS, NBC or ABC What single news source do you turn to most often? This could include a social media site or a news site.
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